<div dir="ltr"><span title="2016-07-25">July 25, 2016</span>
<h1>A Nuclear-Armed Caliphate?</h1>
<span><a href="http://www.crisismagazine.com/author/william-kilpatrick" target="_blank">William Kilpatrick</a><br><a href="http://www.crisismagazine.com/2016/nuclear-armed-caliphate" target="_blank">http://www.crisismagazine.com/2016/nuclear-armed-caliphate</a></span> <img src="http://3m7ajlsrzj92lfd1hu16hu7vc.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/turkey_military_coup-660x350-1469423780.jpg" alt="Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, center, heads an emergency meeting of the National Security Council with Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, center left, Chief of Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar, center right, and ministers in Ankara, Turkey, Wednesday, July 20, 2016. Turkey's National Security Council is holding an emergency meeting following a coup attempt last week that was derailed by security forces and protesters loyal to the government. Erdogan was heading the meeting Wednesday of the council, which is the highest advisory body on security issues. (Kayhan Ozer/Presidential Press Service, Pool via AP)" height="350" width="660"> <div>
<p><b>Much has been made of the Islamic State’s claim</b> to
the caliphate. But<span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b> the Islamic State</b></span> <span style="background-color:rgb(255,229,153)"><b>is fast losing ground in Syria and
Iraq, and without a territorial claim, its claim to the caliphate is a
shaky one.</b></span> According to <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/end-isis-islamic-state-leaders-prepare-fall-caliphate-iraq-syria-plans-global-terror-2391152" target="_blank">some sources</a>, ISIS has already been preparing its followers for the fall of the caliphate.</p>
<p>Meanwhile,<span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b> an Islamist power with a much better claim to the
caliphate has been gathering strength. </b></span>Whether the failed coup in Turkey
was the real thing or whether it was staged, as some have claimed,<span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>
President Erdogan’s hold over the Turkish nation has been immeasurably
strengthened. </b></span>As a result, he is now one giant step closer to doing
what, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Spring-McCarthy-Andrew-Encounter-Paperback/dp/B00E2RPZ4I?ie=UTF8&keywords=andrew%20Mc%20Carthy%2C%20spring%20Fever&qid=1447202056&ref_=sr_1_sc_2&sr=8-2-spell" target="_blank">some say</a>, he has always wanted to do—namely, to re-establish the caliphate.</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>The last time the Muslim world had a caliphate, it was centered in
Constantinople. The Turkish sultan (who was also the caliph) was the
head of the Ottoman Empire—an empire that controlled far more territory
than ISIS does or is ever likely to. </b></span><span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)"><b>Then in 1923, following the
disarray left by the First World War, a secular government under the
leadership of Kemal Ataturk came to power in Turkey and abolished the
caliphate soon after.</b></span></p>
<p>To many in the Muslim world, this was a world-changing catastrophe<span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)">.<b>
It flew in the face of Muhammad’s intention that mosque and state should
be united, and it undermined the case for Islamic law. </b></span>Moreover, the
overthrow of the caliphate affected not just Turkey, but all of the
Muslim world. I<span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>n the late 1920s in Egypt, Hasan al-Banna founded the
Muslim Brotherhood with the intention of reversing</b></span> <span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)"><b>what Ataturk had
done. </b></span>The Brotherhood came close to doing this–at least in Egypt—in 2012
with the election of Mohamed Morsi as president. But Morsi showed his
hand too early and was soon deposed by the military under General
El-Sisi.</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(255,229,153)"><b><span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)">In Turkey, also, it was the military that acted as the guardian of
the secular state. And so it remained </span><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)">until</span></b></span><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b> the election of President
Recep Erdogan in 2002. Even then, Erdogan moved slowly in his efforts to
re-Islamize Turkey. He gradually removed top military officers and
replaced them with his own men; and he did the same with the police, the
judiciary, and other key institutions</b></span>.</p>
<p>By 2012, some twenty percent of the <a href="http://www2.nationalreview.com/article/438114/turkey-coup-attempt-recep-erdogan-military-akp-justice-development-party" target="_blank">country’s generals</a>
were estimated to be behind bars. Then, with this month’s failed coup,
Erdogan moved quickly to arrest some 3,000 members of the military and
3,000 members of the judiciary. In addition, his regime sacked 9,000
workers attached to the Interior Ministry. Within a week of the
attempted coup, some <a href="http://www2.nationalreview.com/article/438114/turkey-coup-attempt-recep-erdogan-military-akp-justice-development-party" target="_blank">50,000 soldiers</a>, police, judges, civil servants, and teachers had been suspended or arrested.</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>Erdogan’s power is now nearly absolute—not unlike the absolute power of a sultan.</b></span> <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/a-failed-coup-means-a-bleak-future-for-turkeys-democracy/article30947322/" target="_blank">According to some</a>, this has been his goal all along. One indication is that <span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)">Erdogan has built himself a thousand-room <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/12/24/370931835/turkeys-president-and-his-1-100-room-white-palace" target="_blank">presidential palace</a> that is attended by guards dressed in Ottoman-era uniforms</span>.</p>
<p>If Erdogan does try to establish a caliphate, <span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)"><b>where does that leave
ISIS? Would they go quietly into the dark night of oblivion?</b></span> Or would
they find a place in the new caliphate?</p>
<p>As you may have noticed, alliances in the Middle East are constantly
shifting. <span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>It’s not inconceivable that ISIS would someday pledge
allegiance to a neo-Ottoman caliphate</b></span>—although such an event might have
to be preceded by the demise of their current caliph, Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi. The truth is,<span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b> Erdogan has been something of a friend and
benefactor of ISIS.</b></span> As <a href="http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/263596/turkey-%E2%80%93-roger-out-caroline-glick" target="_blank">Caroline Glick</a> observed in the <i>Jerusalem Post</i>:</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>Erdogan has turned a blind eye to al-Qaida. And he has permitted ISIS
to use Turkey as its logistical base, economic headquarters, and
recruitment center.</b></span> Earlier this year, the State Department claimed that
all of the 25,000 foreign recruits to ISIS have entered Syria through
Turkey.</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>Turkey is also the gateway between Syria and Europe. It is through
Turkey that the bulk of Muslim migrants flow into Europe</b></span>. <span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>This gives
Erdogan enormous leverage over<span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)"> </span></b></span><span style="background-color:rgb(217,234,211)"><b>the future of Europe</b></span>—a continent which is
already reeling from a flood of migrants and refugees. How is the
leverage applied? <span style="background-color:rgb(249,203,156)"><b>In March, the European Union reached a deal with
Turkey that would in essence turn Turkey into a buffer zone against
further immigration.</b></span> Here’s how <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/1117100" target="_blank"><i>Foreign Affairs</i> </a>summarized the bargain:</p>
<p>Turkey has agreed to act as a giant refugee holding center, keeping
the millions of migrants fleeing conflict in the Middle East from
reaching Europe and accepting those sent back from Greece. In exchange,
the EU will pay Turkey three billion euros on top of the three billion
pledged last November to help care for the refugees. It will also speed
up the approval of visa-free travel to Europe for Turkish citizens and
revive stalled negotiations over Turkey’s accession to the EU.</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(249,203,156)"><b>So</b><b> Turkey will keep the Syrian migrants out of Europe as long as
Turkish citizens are allowed almost unlimited access to Europe through
visa-free travel. </b></span><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>The net result is that the Islamization of Europe will
continue. </b></span>And, of course,<span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b> there’s nothing to stop Turkey from opening
up the refugee floodgate whenever it sees fit.</b></span> Turkey’s control of
Mid-East migration gives it the upper hand in its dealings with Europe.</p>
<p><span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>The other part of the bargain is the revival of negotiations to admit
Turkey to the EU. If Turkey is ever successful in that endeavor, it
would spell game-over for Europe. </b></span>If Erdogan wants to re-establish the
caliphate, and if he is so keen on union with Europe, it is likely that
he envisions Europe as part of the future caliphate. This is something
that the Ottoman sultans dreamed of, but were never able to accomplish.
But Erdogan might be able to pull it off. <span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>There is now a very large
contingent of Turks in Germany who seem to bear more allegiance to him
than to Germany. And all over Europe there exists a fifth column of
active and potential Islamists ready to be activated. As for the other
four columns,</b><span style="background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"> it’s worth keeping in mind that</span><b> Turkey has the second
largest army in NATO (the U.S. has the largest). And with many of the
generals who coordinated with NATO now in jail, Turkey’s loyalty to NATO
is very much in question.</b></span></p>
<p>There is one other factor to consider. During and after the coup attempt, Erdogan <a href="http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/263596/turkey-%E2%80%93-roger-out-caroline-glick" target="_blank">shut down Incirlik Air Base</a>,
which is home to 1,500 American soldiers as well as other NATO troops.
The Turkish government cut off the base’s electricity supply,
temporarily suspended flights, and arrested the base commander, General
Ercan Van. The base reportedly houses 50 nuclear warheads. The bombs are
controlled by the U.S. forces in Turkey, but could they by means sudden
or gradual fall under the control of Turkey? And if they did, would the
U.S. dare to do anything about it?</p>
<p>By many accounts, <span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>Erdogan is a true believer who, in his own way, is
every bit as fanatical as the ayatollahs in Iran</b></span>. The man who built a
thousand-room palace for himself <span style="background-color:rgb(234,209,220)"><b>might well believe that a restored
caliphate should possess all the weapons that befit a great world power.
</b></span>With Erdogan’s latest consolidation of power, an already dangerous
world just became a lot more dangerous.</p>
<p><i>(Kayhan Ozer/Presidential Press Service, Pool via AP)</i></p>
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<span>Tagged as</span>
<a href="http://www.crisismagazine.com/tags/isis-isil-terrorists" rel="tag" target="_blank">ISIS / ISIL terrorists</a>,
<a href="http://www.crisismagazine.com/tags/recep-tayyip-erdogan" rel="tag" target="_blank">Recep Tayyip Erdogan</a>,
<a href="http://www.crisismagazine.com/tags/turkey" rel="tag" target="_blank">Turkey</a>
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<img alt="William Kilpatrick" src="http://3m7ajlsrzj92lfd1hu16hu7vc.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/William-Kilpatrick_avatar_1388375486-75x75.jpg" height="75" width="75"><h4>By <a href="http://www.crisismagazine.com/author/william-kilpatrick" title="Posts by William Kilpatrick" rel="author" target="_blank">William Kilpatrick</a></h4>
<p>William Kilpatrick taught for many years at Boston College. He is the
author of several books about cultural and religious issues, including <i>Psychological Seduction; Why Johnny Can’t Tell Right From Wrong;</i> and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Christianity-Islam-Atheism-Struggle-Soul/dp/158617696X" target="_blank">Christianity, Islam and Atheism: The Struggle for the Soul of the West</a> and the forthcoming <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Politically-Incorrect-Guide-Jihad-Guides/dp/1621575772/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1467592202&sr=1-1&keywords=the+politically+incorrect+guide+to+jihad" target="_blank">The Politically Incorrect Guide to Jihad</a>. His articles have appeared in numerous publications, including <i>Catholic World Report, National Catholic Register, Aleteia, Saint Austin Review, Investor’s Business Daily,</i> and <i>First Things</i>. His work is supported in part by the Shillman Foundation. For more on his work and writings, visit his website, <a href="http://turningpointproject.com/" target="_blank">turningpointproject.com</a></p>
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